Checking the forecast is not surfing

There is a special kind of confidence that comes from looking at a swell chart while sitting completely dry. The arrows are neat. The colors are decisive. Somewhere in the numbers is a version of the day where everything goes exactly to plan.

The forecast is useful, of course. The tide matters. The wind matters. You should probably know whether the ocean is inviting you in or filing a complaint. But the forecast is also a very good place to hide from the part where you make a choice.

One more refresh might settle it. One more model might agree with the first model. If they disagree, you now have the dignified task of comparing models. At no point in this process do you need to put on a wetsuit.

I like a good plan. I also know the little thrill of mistaking preparation for participation. The chart gives you the shape of a possible wave. It cannot tell you what the water feels like, or whether the whole business will be worth getting out of bed for. Those details are inconveniently located outside.

Perhaps the honest question is smaller than Will it be good? It is: Am I going? An imperfect answer gets you further than a perfect forecast you never leave the house to test.

And if the answer is no, fair enough. There are worse ways to spend a morning than staying dry. It just helps to call it staying dry.